Effects Of Japan Earthquake Underestimated, Beware China’S Bubble!
The current market perception is that the impact of the terrible disaster in Japan on the global economy is likely to be limited to a shave-off of approximately 0.5% of global economic growth. The IMF's forecast for Japan was lowered from 1.6% prior to the earthquake to 1.4% in 2011. According to the IMF their initial estimates are that the damage could be twice that of the Kobe earthquake in 1995 or up to 5% of GDP. My initial estimates also called for a shave-off of global GDP growth of 0.5%.