The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and the Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research. A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy. Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases. (Source)
The speech by former US Vice-President Al Gore was apocalyptic. ‘The North Polar ice cap is falling off a cliff,’ he said. ‘It could be completely gone in summer in as little as seven years. Seven years from now.’ Those comments came in 2007 as Mr Gore accepted the Nobel Peace Prize for his campaigning on climate change. But seven years after his warning, The Mail on Sunday can reveal that, far from vanishing, the Arctic ice cap has expanded for the second year in succession – with a surge, depending on how you measure it, of between 43 and 63 per cent since 2012. To put it another way, an area the size of Alaska, America’s biggest state, was open water two years ago, but is again now covered by ice.
Rossiter wrote an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal titled “Sacrificing Africa for Climate Change,” in which he called notions of climate catastrophe “unproved science,” and shortly thereafter received word from the institute that his position was terminated. ● “
I am simply someone who became convinced that the claims of certainty about the cause of the warming and the effect of the warming were tremendously and irresponsibly overblown,” he said in an exclusive interview Tuesday with The College Fix. “
I am not someone who says there wasn’t warming and it doesn’t have an effect, I just cannot figure out why so many people believe that it is a catastrophic threat to our society and to Africa.” For this belief – based in a decade’s worth of statistical research and analysis on climate change data – Rossiter was recently terminated as an associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies, a progressive Washington D.C. think tank.
Professor Lennart Bengtsson says recent McCarthy-style pressure from fellow academics forced him to resign from his post on a climate sceptic think-tank. ● The research fellow from the University of Reading believes a paper he co-authored was deliberately suppressed from publicatoin in a leading journal because of an intolerance of dissenting views about climate change by scientists who peer-reviewed the work. “
The problem we have now in the scientific community is that some scientists are mixing up their scientific role with that of climate activist,” he told the Times. Professor Bengtsson claims a scientist advised that the paper, which challenged findings that global temperature would increase by 4.5C if greenhouse gases were to double, should not be published in a respected journal because it was “less than helpful.” The unnamed scientist, who was asked to peer review Professor Bengtsson’s paper, said in his comments: “Actually it is harmful as it opens the door for oversimplified claims of ‘errors’ and worse from the climate sceptics side.”
ANTARCTIC sea ice has expanded to record levels for April, increasing by more than 110,000sq km a day last month to nine million square kilometres. ● The National Snow and Ice Data Centre said the rapid expansion had continued into May and the seasonal cover was now bigger than the record “by a significant margin’’.
Steve Kates ■ A Chilling Appraisal Of Climate Change (Book review) || The book reminds me just how viciously stupid have been the left’s attempts to gag debate on global warming. Had the only evidence available supported the warmists’ cause, there might have been something worth continuing to discuss. Instead, with the abrupt end to the warming phase between fifteen and twenty years ago [...], we should actually be looking at the effects that may follow if a solar minimum is about to recur, as it did during the Little Ice Age which ended not all that long ago. Suppose the Thames were to begin freezing over again, as it last did in 1802, how will we get on in a world of such cold and reduced growing seasons? Try that out in conversation the next time some propaganda-programmed dimwit brings up climate change. ■ Global warming is climate change for idiots. A cooling climate may be the real thing and the possibility should be treated with the utmost seriousness. The subtitle, “Why Life in the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish and Short", is exactly what the book explains. It’s a book with a message we should all be thinking about, and not just here in Australia but across the world.
Europe is unhappy with Australia's decision to drop climate change from the G20 agenda and is lobbying the Abbott government to reconsider. || European Union officials say Australia has become completely “disengaged” on climate change since Tony Abbott was elected in September last year. They are disappointed with the Prime Minister’s approach, saying Australia was considered an important climate change player under Labor. One well-placed EU official has likened the change to “losing an ally”. The EU has a long-running emissions trading scheme which was going to be linked to Australia's market. But Mr Abbott has pledged to scrap the carbon price in favour of his direct action policy.
Dr. Woodcock declared there was 'professional misconduct by Government advisors around the world' when it comes to man-made climate change claims. ● “
The theory of ‘man-made climate change’ is an unsubstantiated hypothesis’ – water is a much more powerful greenhouse gas and there is is 20 time more of it in our atmosphere (around one per cent of the atmosphere) whereas CO2 is only 0.04% – ‘Carbon dioxide has been made out to be some kind of toxic gas but the truth is it’s the gas of life. We breath it out, plants breath it in. The green lobby has created a do-good industry and it becomes a way of life, like a religion.” Woodcock continued: “
The temperature of the earth has been going up and down for millions of years, if there are extremes, it’s nothing to do with carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, it’s not permanent and it’s not caused by us. Global warming is nonsense.”
Yorkshire Evening Post: ‘Global warming’ is rubbish says top professor
Denis G. Rancourt: Climate science is a "Zombie science" +
The global warming movement is "Strictly an imaginary problem of the 1st World middleclass"
Mike Rivero ■ Climate scientist ridicules U.N. report as junk || Nobody is going to be convinced to pay a "Cloud tax" or buy "Mist credits." Methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but most methane comes from deep crust microbes, termites, and cows, life forms far too intelligent to listen to Al Gore. Carbon dioxide was selected for demonization not because it is a problem, but because it could be blamed on human activity to sell carbon credits and levy carbon taxes, and exert more government control over our private lives. The fact that the UN is still pushing this global warming hysteria despite several record-setting winters in a row proves that this is not science, but a political agenda.
Rupert Darwall ■ It needs catastrophe scenarios to sell their ideas || Its most eye-catching claim (in the new WGII report) is that negative impacts of climate change on crop yields are more common to date than positive impacts are. This improbable claim finds only the weakest support in the main body of the report, with its qualification that climate change played a “minor role.” It is, the report states, “extremely difficult” to define a clear baseline from which to assess the impact of climate change, and many non-climate factors are often difficult to quantify. More egregiously, the summary speaks of rapid price increases following climate extremes since the 2007 report. This negligence amounts to downright dishonesty, as the summary omits mention of one of the principal causes of the 2007–08 spike in food prices, which is highlighted in the main body of the report. It was not climate change that increased food costs, but climate policies in the form of increased use of food crops in biofuel production, exacerbated by higher oil prices and government embargoes on food exports. Source
Tony Thomas: Finally, Some Real Climate Science
This week, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is releasing its latest report, the “Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report.” Like its past reports, this one predicts apocalyptic consequences if mankind fails to give the UN the power to tax and regulate fossil fuels and subsidize and mandate the use of alternative fuels. But happily, an international group of scientists I have been privileged to work with has conducted an independent review of IPCC’s past and new reports, along with the climate science they deliberately exclude or misrepresent. Our group, called the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), was founded in 2003 by a distinguished atmospheric physicist, S. Fred Singer, and has produced five hefty reports to date, the latest being released today (March 31). So how do the IPCC and NIPCC reports differ? The final draft of the IPCC’s Summary for Policymakers identifies eight “reasons for concern” which media reports say will remain the focus of the final report. The NIPCC reports address each point too, also summarizing their authors’ positions in Summaries for Policymakers. This provides a convenient way to compare and contrast the reports’ findings.
Humans are NOT to blame for global warming, says Greenpeace co-founder, as he insists there is 'no scientific proof' climate change is manmade. ● There is no scientific proof of man-made global warming and a hotter earth would be ‘beneficial for humans and the majority of other species’, according to a founding member of environmental campaign group Greenpeace. The assertion was made by Canadian ecologist Patrick Moore, a member of Greenpeace from 1971 to 1986, to U.S senators on Tuesday. He told The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee: ‘There is no scientific proof that human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are the dominant cause of the minor warming of the Earth’s atmosphere over the past 100 years. If there were such a proof it would be written down for all to see. No actual proof, as it is understood in science, exists.’
Richard McNider & John Christy ■ In a Feb. 16 speech in Indonesia, Secretary of State John Kerry assailed climate-change skeptics as members of the "Flat Earth Society" for doubting the reality of catastrophic climate change. He said, "We should not allow a tiny minority of shoddy scientists" and "extreme ideologues to compete with scientific facts." But who are the Flat Earthers, and who is ignoring the scientific facts? In ancient times, the notion of a flat Earth was the scientific consensus, and it was only a minority who dared question this belief. We are among today's scientists who are skeptical about the so-called consensus on climate change. Does that make us modern-day Flat Earthers, as Mr. Kerry suggests, or are we among those who defy the prevailing wisdom to declare that the world is round? [...] We should not have a climate-science research program that searches only for ways to confirm prevailing theories, and we should not honor government leaders, such as Secretary Kerry, who attack others for their inconvenient, fact-based views.
Charles Battig: Mass destruction of science: John Kerry at work!
A Catastrophic Cooling 5,200 Years Ago Was Preceeded by a Few Decades of Warming and Low Sunspot Activity: Sound Familiar?
The 2004 annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union saw evidence that proved beyond doubt that a devastating and abrupt change in climate happened 5,200 years ago. Now when I say abrupt I really do mean abrupt. A massive and profound global cooling event happened 5,200 years ago, and one of the leading scientists in the field of ice core analysis thinks it’s about to happen again. Not much was said about this outside of scientific circles, certainly nothing was said by the government. Even the words and research of a world renowned expert count for nothing. As far as the warmist government is concerned, we are all to believe we will die of heatstroke in the next 50 years. Thompson even mentions the Sun, and it’s role in climate forcing, and once again, just like 5,200 years ago, the Sun is showing the lowest activity for a century. Predictions for solar cycle 25 are that there may not be any sunspots at all.
The US National Security Agency spied on the communications conducted by other governments before and during the 2009 United Nations climate negotiations conference held in Copenhagen, according to a report based on documents leaked by Edward Snowden. ● A “top secret” document obtained by the Huffington Post reveals that the NSA was keeping tabs on how other countries were communicating before the conference and that the intelligence agency planned to keep its operations running through the meeting. The document was published on an internal NSA site on the first day of the Denmark conference, December 7, 2009, and stated that “
analysts here at NSA, as well as our Second Party partners, will continue to provide policymakers with unique, timely, and valuable insights into key countries’ preparations and goals for the conference, as well as the deliberation within countries on climate change policies and negotiation strategies.” The mention of “Second Party partners” is a reference to the Five Eyes group of nations that the US shares intelligence with, a group that includes the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
The recent cold spell that swept through much of the continental U.S. was the result of global warming, a new propaganda video put out by the White House claims. According to Obama's Science and Technology Advisor, Dr. John Holdren, the U.S. supposedly experienced one of its worst freezes in contemporary history because the planet is warming, an absolutely astounding demonstration of cognitive dissonance that proves the total insanity of our nation's leaders. The video, entitled "The Polar Vortex Explained in 2 Minutes," makes the audacious claim that one of the major indicators of global warming is a progressive increase in extreme cold weather patterns. With a completely straight face, Dr. Holdren, the White House climate czar, attempts to convince America during the clip that extreme cold actually means progressive warming, or something like that.
[Editor's Comment:] If there had been a spell of hot weather, it's pretty darn clear that the White House Climate Czar would have claimed this was because of global warming. So according to him (probably), any spell, whether cold or hot, would prove his position, which fundamentally therefore is untestable. Flashing all sorts of graphs and time-lapse imagery of changing polar ice caps isn't in and of itself science. Science is the realm of the testable. If it's not testable, it's not science. What is it then? Faith? -Well, no, because Obama's Climate Czar is not being sincere. He knows he's lying. So it's not even faith. We'll get to the point: it's clear what it really is - it's propaganda. That's what this video is. Pure & simple. So updating Orwell a wee bit, we'll put it this way: Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength, War is Peace and Freezing is Warming...There you have it.
Authorities reported at least 21 cold-related deaths across the country since Sunday, including seven in Illinois, and six in Indiana. ● At least five people died after collapsing while shoveling snow, while several victims were identified as homeless people who either refused shelter or didn't make it to a warm haven soon enough to save themselves from the bitter temperatures. The brutal polar air that has made the Midwest shiver over the past few days spread to the East and the Deep South on Tuesday, shattering records that in some cases had stood for more than a century. The mercury plunged into the single digits and teens from Boston and New York to Atlanta, Birmingham, Nashville and Little Rock — places where many people don't know the first thing about extreme cold. In Missouri on Monday, a 1-year-old boy was killed when the car he was riding in struck a snow plow, and a 20-year-old woman was killed in a separate crash after her car slid on ice and into the path of a tractor-trailer. In a phenomenon that forecasters said is actually not all that unusual, all 50 states saw freezing temperatures at some point Tuesday. That included Hawaii, where it was 18 degrees atop Mauna Kea, a dormant volcano. The big chill started in the Midwest over the weekend, caused by a kink in the "polar vortex," the strong winds that circulate around the North Pole. By Tuesday, the icy air covered about half the country, and records were shattered like icicles up and down the Eastern Seaboard.
■ Despite no global warming in 10 years and recording setting cold in 2007-2008, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) and computer modelers who believe that CO2 is the cause of global warming still predict the Earth is in store for catastrophic warming in this century. IPCC computer models have predicted global warming of 1° F per decade and 5-6° C (10-11° F) by 2100 (Fig. 1), which would cause global catastrophe with ramifications for human life, natural habitat, energy and water resources, and food production. All of this is predicated on the assumption that global warming is caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 and that CO2 will continue to rise rapidly.
■ However, records of past climate changes suggest an altogether different scenario for the 21st century. Rather than drastic global warming at a rate of 0.5 ° C (1° F) per decade, historic records of past natural cycles suggest global cooling for the first several decades of the 21st century to about 2030, followed by global warming from about 2030 to about 2060, and renewed global cooling from 2060 to 2090 (Easterbrook, D.J., 2005, 2006a, b, 2007, 2008a, b); Easterbrook and Kovanen, 2000, 2001). Climatic fluctuations over the past several hundred years suggest ~30 year climatic cycles of global warming and cooling, on a general rising trend from the Little Ice Age.
Antarctic sea ice has grown to a record large extent for a second straight year, baffling scientists seeking to understand why this ice is expanding rather than shrinking in an [allegedly] warming world. | On Saturday, the ice extent reached 19.51 million square kilometers, according to data posted on the National Snow and Ice Data Center Web site. That number bested record high levels set earlier this month and in 2012 (of 19.48 million square kilometers). Records date back to October 1978. The increasing ice is especially perplexing since the water beneath the ice has warmed, not cooled. The "overwhelming evidence" is that the Southern Ocean is warming,
said Jinlun Zhang [claimed], a University of Washington scientist, studying Antarctic ice. “Why would sea ice be increasing? Although the rate of increase is small, it is a puzzle to scientists.”
Roger Franklin: They set out to compare Douglas Mawson's century-old observations with their own modern readings, but a stranded band of true-believing, Australian-led warmists has discovered there is still plenty of ice in Antarctica. Also, that embarrassment can be almost as painful as frostbite. ■ Somewhere in a parallel universe a prominent climate scientist much given to doom-laden predictions leads an Antarctic expedition of likeminded warmists intent on chronicling the damage mankind’s CO2 emissions are doing to our fragile planet. His party finds the polar sea largely free of ice and he concludes that whales and penguins are in all sorts of trouble as waters warm and food sources vanish. After re-tracing the route of Douglas Mawson’s expedition and comparing his measurements and findings with contemporary readings, everyone voyages back home, the ABC sends a camera crew to the dock and that night’s news is another warmist sermon dressed up as that fabled stuff “quality journalism”.
UPDATE: At last report the rescue ship was itself stuck in those not-quite-melting ice floes. | And here is something else that has been withdrawn: Any mention in press coverage that Turney and colleagues headed south to assess the ongoing impact of global warming. The closest any report comes to describing the expedition’s original purpose is the rather inadequate explanation that it is an attempt at “recreating Australian explorer Douglas Mawson’s century-old voyage to Antarctica.” When Turney is quoted he is mentioned only as a common or garden-variety “professor”, not as UNSW’s official Professor of Climate Change. Anthropogenic global warming may or may not be altering the planet, but the lack of it can certainly mess up even the best planned scientific expedition/PR offensive.
Lawrence Solomon ■ Almost everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the cause of global warming. 2013 marks the 17th year of no warming on the planet. 2013 has been a gloomy year for global warming enthusiasts. The sea ice in the Antarctic set a record, according to NASA, extending over a greater area than at any time since 1979 when satellite measurements first began. In the Arctic the news is also glum. Five years ago, Al Gore predicted that by 2013 “the entire North polar ice cap will be gone.” Didn’t happen. Instead, a deflated Gore saw the Arctic ice cap increase by 50% over 2012. This year’s Arctic ice likewise exceeded that of 2008, the year of his prediction. And that of 2009, 2010 and 2011. Weather between the poles has also conspired to make the global warming believers look bad. In December, U.S. weather stations reported over 2000 record cold and snow days. Almost 60% of the U.S. was covered in snow, twice as much as last year. The heavens even opened up in the Holy Land, where an awestruck citizenry saw 16 inches of snow fall in Jerusalem, almost three feet in its environs. Snow blanketed Cairo for the first time in more than 100 years.
Arctic sea ice last month was around 50 percent higher in volume compared with a year earlier, following a recovery in area this summer, the European Space Agency (ESA) said Monday. ● This is some good news for the Arctic, but does not reverse a longer trend of decline, it said. Data from ESA’s high-tech ice-monitoring satellite CryoSat found that in October this year, there was about 9,000 cubic kilometres (2,100 cu. miles) of sea ice in the Arctic. A year earlier, the volume was 6,000 cu. kms (1,400 cu. miles). When measured over a timescale of several years, ice in October 2013 was about 30 centimetres (19 inches) thicker than last year’s — a rise of about 20 percent. Sea ice is ocean water that freezes in extremely low temperatures. In the Arctic, this ice goes through regular swings, contracting in the northern hemisphere’s summer and expanding in its winter. As a result, the changes are considered a bellwether of global warming, although experts also warn that only decades-long data can show whether something is a trend — meaning a man-made shift in climate — rather than a blip in the weather.
TruthSeeker, Comment — Dec 17, 2013 ■ Interesting how this story is being reported elsewhere in the corporate media. For example the Independent, long given to spouting N.W.O. party lines aimed at the liberal middle-class sometimes known as the “chattering classes”, reports that the increase in volume is “probably only a temporary respite“. That maybe but it it’s as well to recall that just 13-years-ago the very same Independent predicted that Flashback: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past. Since then, of course, Britain has seen plenty of snow in some of its worst winters in decades. So one should be a little sceptical by any of the Independent’s claims about climate.
During the run-up to every major UN global warming conference, warming-funded researchers, climate campaign organizations and the go-along media find news events and research reports to hype. COP 19 is no exception. Temperatures have been flat since the nineties and climate models embarrassingly project higher temperatures than observations show. This deprives the warming industry of the opportunity to make the claim it would most like to make — that the Earth has actually warmed as they said it would. Absent this, they find other things to hype. So far this year’s favorite has been the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, conveniently ignoring the fact that whatever the concentration of CO2 may be, temperatures have yet to behave as the models claimed they would. This week they found a new one and it’s a whopper. Climate campaigners are claiming (with no real-world basis) that typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda, which just struck the Philippines and China is the result of global warming. In short, they blame this storm on you for living in an industrialized, free society.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate modeling produces terrifying scenarios of global warming and apocalyptic consequences including polar melting, coastal flooding, extreme weather, and species extinctions. Such forecasts assume that human emissions of greenhouse gases—principally carbon dioxide from burning coal and oil—will cause unprecedented warming. Although the IPCC claims that they provide “scenarios” rather than forecasts, they conflate the terms in practice to suggest that their scenarios describe what will actually happen to climate over the 21st Century.
As Professor of Meteorology Dr. Richard Lindzen at MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences observed, “The latest IPCC report truly sank to the level of hilarious incoherence – it is quite amazing to see the contortions the IPCC has to go through in order to keep the international climate agenda going.” The banner claim of this 2013 Summary for Policymakers (AR5) release is that “Human influence is extremely likely to be dominant cause of observed warming since the middle of the last century.” This “extremely likely” was ratcheted up from “very likely” they claimed in their previous 2007 report. At the same time, the IPCC actually admitted that its 2007 report estimate of greenhouse gas influence had been significantly exaggerated. One can only wonder how they have become more confident that at least more than half of the temperature rise since the mid-20th century has been caused by greenhouse gas emissions, when at the same time they are less certain about climate sensitivity to CO2. Making life even more difficult for that climate cartel is having to explain why the global climate has flat-lined over at least the past 16 years despite increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, something they euphemistically refer to as a “pause”.
New paper demonstrates climate models don't even have the 'basic physics' of the greenhouse effect correct
A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters inadvertently demonstrates that climate models don't even have the so-called 'basic physics' of the greenhouse effect correct. According to the paper, climate models show that "With CO2 at or below 1/8 of the 1950 value [i.e. ~39 ppm], runaway sea ice does occur as the planet cascades to a snowball Earth climate with fully ice covered oceans and global mean surface temperatures near – 30 °C." However, -30°C is much colder than the -18°C calculated* for an Earth with no atmosphere or oceans or greenhouse effect at all! Further, -30°C is much, much colder [i.e. 35°C colder] than the +5°C global mean temperature calculated using the IPCC formula** for CO2 forcing using a CO2 level of 39 ppm. It is astonishing that the authors, who claim to be top experts on the physics of CO2 radiative transfer, did not realize that their computer model is outputting physically-impossible GIGO.
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