Mountain has long and hot history
The last time Mt Eyjafjallajokull erupted, it kept going for more than a year. Then it triggered a more powerful eruption from its neighbouring volcano, Katla. Volcanologists warn that the Icelandic volcano causing havoc over the skies of Europe has a history of long eruptions. The eruption from 1821 to 1823 was followed by a much bigger eruption of Katla in 1823. But New Zealand volcanologist Gill Jolly said that disruption to air travel would last only as long as the weather pushed the ash over Europe.
"History does matter ... if a volcano tends to erupt in short sharp bursts that's what it will tend to do in the future but volcanos are also very unpredictable beasts," she said. A change of wind direction could soon limit the disruption to Iceland and Scandinavia even if the ash kept coming. "The winds have brought it down over Europe - it is quite an unusual wind direction for there. A couple of good depressions ... .should blow it all away." Míla: "Eyjafjallajökull" frá Valahnúk (WEBCAM) + "Hvolsvelli" frá Valahnúk (WEBCAM). Boston.com: Volcano spewing less ash as lava boils up.
Craig Murray: Volcanic Ash - Crying Wolf Again or Real Threat?
Consider the really major government scares of the last few years - things which were supposed to result in the death of millions - which proved to be nothing like the threat alleged. SARS, avian flu and swine flu all come instantly to mind. And what about the most ramped threat of all, the War of Terror, said by Tony Blair to be an "existential threat" and by John Reid to be a threat "On the scale of World War 2".
There is an absolutely clear history of governmental over-exaggeration of threat, but also that governments have no difficulty in finding backing for this fear-mongering from government scientists and both techincal and inter-governmental international bodies. There are always virologists, vulcanologists and security experts willing to go on TV and tell us we are all doomed (oh, and can they get a bigger research grant to combat the threat).