The Darkness Ahead: Where the Ukraine War Is Headed
John J. MEARSHEIMER | This paper examines the likely trajectory of the Ukraine war moving forward. I will address two main questions. | First, is a meaningful peace agreement possible? My answer is no. We are now in a war where both sides – Ukraine and the West on one side and Russia on the other – see each other as an existential threat that must be defeated. Given maximalist objectives all around, it is almost impossible to reach a workable peace treaty. Moreover, the two sides have irreconcilable differences regarding territory and Ukraine’s relationship with the West. The best possible outcome is a frozen conflict that could easily turn back into a hot war. The worst possible outcome is a nuclear war, which is unlikely but cannot be ruled out. [...] [...] [...] While there is no question Russia invaded Ukraine, the ultimate cause of the war was the West’s decision – and here we are talking mainly about the United States – to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. The key element in that strategy was bringing Ukraine into NATO, a move that not only Putin, but the entire Russian foreign policy establishment, saw as an existential threat that had to be eliminated.
■ The Age of Confrontation (Dmitry Medvedev)(07/03/23) | Whether it will be possible to find a way to compromise, I do not know. I am not sure. So far, the degenerate Western political class is trying to up the ante in a bloody clown horror show. In a state of persistent dementia, it pushes our little world toward World War III. Pushing the stoned Kiev regime to go to war with every last Ukrainian. In other words, I am not an optimist. It was not without reason that Anton Pavlovich once remarked that "life is, in fact, a very simple thing, and a man must take great pains to spoil it." But there is always hope.