Russia scrambles as EU surges in Caucasus
Armenia no longer disputes that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan. The prospect of peaceful resolution of a regional conflict ought to be good news, but this is an incredibly complex situation with an external environment where a brutal war is raging with no end in sight, and the protagonists pursue contrarian interests.
A settlement over Nagorno-Karabakh conflict leading to peace and reconciliation might open the pathway to Armenia’s (and, Azerbaijan’s) induction into the EU and NATO in a foreseeable future. The Armenian lobbies in European capitals and Washington wield much political influence. Oil-rich Azerbaijan eyes European market.
That said, Russia will resist the EU and NATO’s expansion into Transcaucasia, a highly strategic geographical region on the border of Eastern Europe and West Asia, straddling the southern Caucasus Mountains and bridges the Black Sea and the Caspian. Armenia is in a military alliance with Russia but Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has increasingly appealed to the West, including the EU.