Pakistan-Afghanistan-India: A New Dimension to the Regional Conflict
Aurobinda Mahapatra
The opinion polls in Afghanistan conducted in December 2009 and revealed this month have shown India as the most favourable country among the people particularly in aspects of initiating development measures. This development is not liked well by many regional players. Pakistan’s policy of keeping India out of the solution format of the Afghan turmoil and its discomfiture particularly at Pakistan-US deliberations about India’s influence in its neighbourhood is well known.
The recent reiteration of Pakistan of ‘thousand years of war’ with India in Pak controlled Kashmir has brought into the forefront the deep tensions in the South Asian politics. The likely Afghan scenario after the withdrawal of NATO forces in 2012 and the strategies of various players in the region has further complicated the geopolitical matrix of the region.
According to the poll conducted by the Afghan Centre for Socio Economic and Opinion Research 71 per cent of 1534 respondents in 43 Afghan locations have overwhelmingly welcomed India’s role in developmental activities in Afghanistan. India has already committed $ 1.2 billion in Afghanistan in terms of building bridges, roads, and schools and other developmental activities and also in training Afghan police. These Indian activities have been viewed with suspicion by Pakistan. India is the largest regional donor in Afghanistan. The poll has registered support of only 2 per cent in the context of Pakistan’s supportive role in Afghanistan. Surprisingly the Taliban has secured 3 per cent of votes, one per cent higher than Pakistan. The Gallup poll with regard to reconstruction of the war-torn country, conducted in November last year, too has overwhelmingly indicated this trend. As per the poll India secures 56 per cent of votes, while Pakistan 30 per cent. The series of attacks on Kabul on 18 January 2010 while President Hamid Karzai was administering oath to 14 ministers in the presidential palace have reflected the open discontent of groups against the elected Karzai government. Reportedly, the attacks were more aimed at displaying the militant groups’ discomfiture, among others, at the government’s getting close to New Delhi.
It is common knowledge that Pakistan has openly declared its reservation over India’s activities in Afghanistan. It has viewed Hamid Karzai’s friendly gesture towards India with suspicion. According to Pak analyst Rasul Bakhsh Rais, “There is a degree of disappointment with him (Karzai), in particular over the way he has provided Afghanistan as a playing field for India.” Another development that further added, or at least helped maintain the tense relation was the speech of Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari in Pak controlled Kashmir. Addressing a joint session of its assembly and the Kashmir Council, Zardari almost reiterated Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s theory that Pakistan will wedge thousands years war with India in Kashmir. He attempted to moderate it by saying the war will be on the level of ideas. Describing Kashmir as the jugular vein of Pakistan, he said, “Soon the time will come when the world will take important decisions regarding Kashmir.” However, the statement did unnerve New Delhi which has repeatedly complained against Pakistan’s inaction against terrorist elements in its controlled Kashmir and other parts of Pakistan. India has argued that these groups have a determined policy to destabilize India.
Some recent developments have impacted Pakistan’s policy towards India. Pakistan has long suspected India’s hand in playing havoc in Balochistan. In fact, the inclusion of Balochistan word in the joint statement of India and Pakistan in Sharm-el-Sheikh in Egypt in July 2009 has provided Pakistan ammunition to accuse Indian agencies for playing devious role in Pakistan’s troubled region. The statement by Indian Army Chief in December 2009 that India is ready to continue a two-front war simultaneously against Pakistan and China has further ruffled the feathers of Pakistan as to the true intentions of India, which is militarily more powerful. Furthermore, the volatile situation in Pakistan, the surge in terror activities, the rising imbalance in policy approaches of army and civilian government exacerbate this vulnerability factor in Pakistan, which has already fought four wars with India.
In the context of Afghanistan the likely withdrawal of US led NATO forces by 2012 will create a vacuum to be contested by various powers to fill in. Pakistan apprehends India getting an upper hand in this game. This apprehension may likely motivate Pakistan to follow a more complicated policy in terms of using elements under its control towards India and Afghanistan. It is true that Afghanistan has miles to go to have semblance of stability, and a transparent and effective governance system but the already set pace for a democratic governance in the trouble-torn can be considered a good start. Hence, in this background it appears more an imperative for the regional powers like India and Pakistan to coordinate their policies to stabilize the region. The fact remains unless there is peace between India and Pakistan, and unless there is evolution of a common approach on the sensitive issues, the region will likely remain unstable and violent. The terrorist organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba have not hidden their agenda to trigger a conflict between India and Pakistan by using devious means.
The stalled Indo-Pak peace process has beckoned well neither for India nor for Pakistan nor for peace in South Asian region, in which Afghanistan has found a place as a member of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. In this critical juncture it appears imminent that India and Pakistan must shun suspicions and resume the dialogue process at higher level and resolve or at least moderate contentious issues. It is undoubtedly a long and arduous process, but it must begin now without any loss of precious time. Besides India and Pakistan, other players like Russia, US, Iran and China need to be involved in any conflict resolution process in Afghanistan. One of the ideas that makes round recently is to return Afghanistan to its traditional policy of neutrality. Whatever may be resolution process the fact remains that the gap in relations between these two nuclear weapon possessing countries created by mistrust and suspicion will provide the terrorist organizations and other similar elements occasion to further realize their agenda and take the South Asian players into ride with serious implications not only for the region but for the world as a whole.
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Source: http://en.fondsk.ru/article.php?id=2717
Illustration: http://www.unsv.com/voanews/english/scripts/2008/12/02/68/kashmir-pakistan-india_01_1.jpg
