Uzbekistan: drifting West
Aleksandr Shustov
Uzbekistan’s foreign policy is becoming more West-oriented. In late October the EU removed the sanctions it had imposed on Uzbekistan after the massacre in Andijan in May 2005. Uzbekistan is one of the US’ key partners of the US and Central Asia again.
Also Uzbek economic partnership with Japan is quite successful. But it is also obvious that Uzbekistan is drifting away from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), EuroAsian Economic Community (EurAsEC) (Uzbekistan withdrew membership a year ago), from the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
The sanctions the EU imposed on Uzbekistan included the embargo on supplies of all types of weapons to the country, banned the entry to the EU for 12 Uzbek officials involved in the riots in Andijan, cut financial assistance introduced restrictions in trade. Last November the EU removed most of these sanctions despite the protests of rights activists. According to the EU, by that time Uzbekistan had made significant progress in human rights protection. On October 27, 2009, during a meeting of the EU Foreign Ministers it was decided to remove the last sanction, which was the ban on weapons supplies. But the real reason behind this decision was Brussels’ plan to establish oil and gas supplies from Uzbekistan to Europe bypassing Russia.
The EU regards Uzbekistan as a possible resource base for its gas pipeline project Nabucco, which implementation is now facing different obstacles. According to the plan the pipeline capacity will be 31 billion cubic meters of gas a year. On the first stage it will supply approximately 16 billion cubic meters of gas a year. Of this amount 8 billion cubic meters will be supplied by Iraq and 8 billion cubic meters by Azerbaijan while the rest will be supplied by Turkmenistan and some other Central Asian countries. This implies the construction of the pipeline on the Caspian Sea bottom. But the uncertainty of the legal status of the Caspian Sea as well as a long-time conflict between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan on oil deposits in the middle part of the Caspian Sea hinder this process. For Uzbekistan it is impossible to participate in Nabucco without constructing gas pipelines across the territories of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
On November 2, state oil and gas company Uzbekneftegaz made a statement saying that it is in talks the EU Commission directorate on foreign policy ties on energy cooperation. According to the statement, Brussels showed interest in cooperation with Uzbekistan on modernization of gas transportation routes, transparence of gas supplies, energy security, development of the existing energy infrastructure. It is obvious that it is not the infrastructure itself the EU needs there. The infrastructure can be used only for gas transit within the Nabucco project.
Last time it was Bulgarian President Georgy Pyrvanov who proposed the Uzbek government to take part in the implementation of Nabucco. It was during his visit in Tashkent on November 5-8, 2008. For Uzbekistan its participation in Nabucco would mean radical changes in geography of gas exports. According to “Fergana.ru”, in 2009 the republic expects to produce about 70 billion cubic meters of gas and to increase annual gas exports to 16.2 billion cubic meters from 15 billion cubic meters. Of this amount Russia will receive 15.2 billion (94%), and neighboring Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan only 1 billion cubic meters. The republic lacks gas pipelines going directions.
One of the gas export routes, alternative to the Russian one could be a gas pipe from Turkmenistan to China with the capacity of 40 billion cubic meters. The pipe is likely to be put into operation by the end of the year. However this pipe is being built mainly for Turkmen gas exports and it is unlikely that the share of Uzbek gas will be big there. This pipe will not enable Uzbekistan to export gas to the European market either.
On October 29, several days after the EU removed sanctions on Uzbekistan, speaking before the members of the American Chamber of Commerce in Tashkent, US’ ambassador in Uzbekistan Richard Norland said that the US was planning to interact with Uzbekistan in political, economic and military spheres. The expansion of the economic cooperation between the two countries and in particular, as it was stressed by Norland, the expansion of cooperation in small and medium businesses is rather US payment to Uzbekistan, because the country is very important for the US to deliver military cargos to Afghanistan. After the launch of “Northern network of supplies”, intended to replace route via Pakistan which became too dangerous, Uzbekistan has become especially important for the US, because all the transit routes agreed with the Russian authorities end at a check point in Termeze in Uzbekistan. In his speech Norland also stressed the development of the airport in Navoi, which should become a transcontinental air hub linking the Far East, South Eastern Asia, South Asia and Europe. This would even more simplify the delivery of military cargos to NATO troops in Afghanistan.
The economic presence of Uzbekistan in Afghanistan is becoming more and more evident. According to the US plan this should contribute to stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan. Uzbekistan is the main electric energy supplier to Afghanistan. The construction of 300 km long high voltage line from the Uzbek city of Termez to the Afghan capital of Kabul is about to be completed. Uzbek state mobile provider “Uzbektelecom” ensures access to the Internet in Afghanistan. Uzbek companies have built 11 bridges across the route Mazari-Sharif-Kabul just along the route of the “Northern network of supplies”. Besides that, Uzbekistan won a bid to build a railroad, which should link the Afghan town of Herat with large cities and ports in Pakistan, India and Iran. All this shows that with the support of the US Uzbekistan is becoming one of the key economic partners of Afghanistan.
Simultaneously with the development of relations between Uzbekistan and the West the country is becoming to distance itself from pro-Russian international organizations. In November 2008 Uzbekistan withdrew membership in the EurAsEC claiming that most of its functions repeated the functions of CSTO. Uzbek authorities also said that the Customs union did not consider the economic interests of Uzbekistan. As the result, Uzbekistan is not a member of the Custom union Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan are to launch on January 1, 2010. Uzbekistan refused to participate in the creation of Collective Rapid Deployment Forces (CRDF), established to protect the countries of the Central Asia from terrorist threat and prevent local conflicts.
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Source: http://en.fondsk.ru/article.php?id=2595
Illustration: http://www.smague.fr/sets/Central_Asia/X05.jpg
