Third Putin Term Poses New Foreign Policy Challenges for Russia and Eurasia
The third presidential term of Vladimir Putin will increase pressure on Russia from Western nations that have overtly and covertly sought to foment unrest throughout the Russian Federation. While such a threat is of the most immediate concern to Russia itself, another threat posed by the West will be the attempt by the West to pry more nations away from what is now considered by the military-industrial-intelligence complex in the United States and other NATO countries to be an emerging Russo-Sino bloc in Eurasia. The United States and NATO fears that such an emerging bloc will draw a line against further NATO encroachment in the Central Asian “stans,” Iran, the Indian subcontinent, and the Middle East.
The outcome of the battle for Syria between Shi’as, Alawites, Christians, Druze, and Ba’ath Socialist stalwarts on one side and NATO-, Gulf Wahhabi Sunni-, and Israeli-backed Sunni and Kurdish guerrillas on the other, will increase big power rivalry in the Middle East. The Russian naval installation at Tartus cannot be replaced given the new political geography of the region. The Turkish government of Islamist-oriented Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has given approval for NATO to build part of its missile shield on Turkish territory.
Another problem for Russia will be the Mikheil Saakashvili regime in Georgia. Saakashvili counts a number of neo-conservative war hawks, Republicans and Democrats, in the U.S. Congress as his friends. These war hawks will be clamoring for the U.S. to take a tougher approach toward the Putin presidency and they will find a willing provocateur in Saakashvili. Georgia’s influence-peddling and lobbying operations in Washington, DC, while not as strong as those of Israel, utilize some of the same political conduits and networks as the Israelis.
