Thoughts and predictions

Danijel Turina

We are dealing with chaos, and in chaotic systems predictions are a pastime of fools.

Let me write down some of my thoughts on what’s going on in the war: Ukraine has almost no army left. This conjecture is based on the increasing reports that everything but the untrained cannon fodder there are the NATO people playing dress-up, the way Russians dressed up as “little green men” in Crimea or Croatian army dressed up as the HVO (Herzegovina Croat paramilitary troops) when they went across the border in 1995 to crush the Serbs. Also, Ukraine has basically no original Ukrainian equipment left, and the NATO stuff is all centrally controlled over satellites and manned by trained NATO personnel. Basically, NATO troops are the glue binding the broken up Ukrainian military, and as time goes on there is increasingly more glue and less Ukraine.

The level of conflict is such that the NATO countries basically ran out of spare weaponry, and since their industries are incapable of producing quantities required for a real war (it’s all tuned for peacetime servicing and replacement of existing small quantities of stuff, and also military industry doesn’t work that well without oil, gas and electricity) they are now in a position where they are forced to deplete their own defensive capabilities if they want to continue with this war, and America/UK is not allowing any alternative to be heard. There was some fuss here in Croatia about whether we should train Ukrainians here or not. I think this is only a fig leaf; Ukraine has no men to be trained.

Looking into the eyes of pure evil

Danijel Turina

For the last week or so, the Ukrainians have been shelling the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant (that has been taken by the Russians at the very onset of the war and not part of any military action). The Russians have arrested two Ukrainian agents inside the plant, who have been providing the Ukrainian military with the coordinates guiding artillery fire.

The danger isn’t from them hitting the reactors; nothing short of a nuclear bomb could penetrate the reactor dome. The main problem is the interruption to the power supply to the water circulation pumps in the reactors, which is what triggered the Fukushima Daiichi incident, because this is the weak point of the solid fuel fission reactors; if you either cut the cooling, or the moderator rods get stuck on the outside position, you get a meltdown. You can guard against this by initiating a complete reactor shutdown.

The second problem is the spent fuel rods pool, which is nowhere near as well protected as the reactors. However, in my opinion this can cause only a localized incident, since you need a reactor meltdown for shit to really hit the fan, because it is then that the superheated steam carries the vast amount of highly radioactive particles high into the atmosphere, from where they spread globally, which took place in Chernobyl. In my opinion, threat to the reactor coolant circulation pump power supply is the greatest danger in any solid fuel fission power plant.

The West is a cult

Danijel Turina

I’ve been thinking about something for the last few days: it’s incredible how the people in the West make counterproductive moves because they start from bad premises, and when the evidence starts showing their errors, they stubbornly insist on their original course, and use their own lies and fallacies as inputs “proving” how they are right, and dismiss facts and evidence as “enemy propaganda”, and all the “official authorities” spew ideological nonsense that is completely out of touch with any kind of reality perceivable “on the ground”.

I’ve seen that mentality before, in the Soviet Union. They fought reality with ideology, and when ideology produced disasters, they attributed that to “sabotage” by “foreign agents” and “counter-revoutionary forces”, because their ideology was unquestionable, it was axiomatically assumed so the problem must, obviously, lie elsewhere. Interestingly, I also saw this mentality in various religious cults, where it’s obvious to the impartial observer that their problems follow from faulty ideology that doesn’t interpret facts and reality properly, and then they have problems which they don’t acknowledge and handle properly, and instead of that they double down on their ideology which of course is correct and is the answer to all of world’s problems, which in turn increases their problem until everything falls apart. – Basically, the West is a cult, and it lives in a similar kind of a false narrative that we find ridiculous in North Korea, but are completely oblivious to the one we live in, because we don’t know the actual facts, and instead we work with the false facts created by the cult we live in.

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