Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

The immense political pressure being placed upon the ruling party by the West is punishment for its pragmatic domestic and foreign policies.

The Georgian capital of Tbilisi has been beset by increasingly violent unrest as the foreign-backed opposition desperately seeks to overturn the outcome of fall’s parliamentary elections.

They were won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, which is comprised of conservative-nationalists who won’t sacrifice their country’s objective national interests by sanctioning Russia or allowing Western “NGOs” to meddle in their affairs. It then froze EU accession talks till 2028 after the EU refused to recognize the results.

No self-respecting government like Georgia’s would continue trying to join an organization that denies the democratic mandate that it just received. The intention is to wait until the EU undergoes domestic political transformation, ideally by 2028, through the expected rise of more conservative-nationalist forces in the future who’d then recognize the aforesaid results. If they’re not recognized by that time, then this policy might be extended unless a regime change happens beforehand.

The situation is worsening as a result of the renascent Color Revolution and the French-born president refusing to leave office after her term expires later this month, both provocations of which are aided by the EU threatening sanctions and the US suspending its strategic partnership with Georgia. The immense political pressure being placed upon the ruling party is punishment for its pragmatic domestic and foreign policies.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

The disaster in Aleppo was avoidable and is just as bad as it looks. The “politically inconvenient” truth is that Syria was caught by surprise, the SAA is on the backfoot, and the worst might be yet to come.

The Turkish-backed terrorists’/“rebels’” advance on Aleppo, which was analyzed here, came as a shock to most observers. There was almost half a decade of peace between the March 2020 ceasefire and now, yet practically nothing was done to prepare for this possibility. This was in spite of the front line remaining roughly two dozen kilometers away from Aleppo, which should have reminded Assad of how vulnerable his country’s second city is.

Here are the five reasons why Syria was caught by surprise:

1. Complacency & Corruption

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) rested on its laurels because it took the Russian-brokered ceasefire for granted, after which the country’s infamous corruption kicked in to degrade its capabilities. There’s no excuse for why even basic drones weren’t used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) to detect the buildup that preceded this advance. A large part of why the SAA didn’t do anything is likely because it assumed that its Russian and Iranian allies would shoulder these responsibilities for them.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

NATO might be willing to test Putin’s patience by crossing yet another of Russia’s perceived red lines in spite of its updated nuclear doctrine and new Oreshniks.

The NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine might be on the brink of an unprecedented escalation that could easily spiral out of control if Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) is correct in claiming that NATO is planning a 100,000-strong military intervention in Ukraine under the guise of peacekeepers. The purpose is to freeze the conflict, presumably by having these troops function as tripwires for deterring a Russian attack that could spark World War III, and then rebuild Ukraine’s military-industrial complex (MIC).

SVR revealed that Poland will have control over Western Ukraine (like it did during the interwar period); Romania will be responsible for the Black Sea coast (which it seized during World War II via and ruled as the “Transnistria Governorate”); the UK will lord over Kiev and the north; while Germany will deploy its forces to the center and east of the country. The latter’s Rhinemetall will lead the efforts to rebuild Ukraine’s MIC by investing heavily, dispatching specialists, and providing high-performance equipment.

Another important detail is that “NATO is already deploying training centers in Ukraine, through which it is planned to drag at least a million mobilized Ukrainians”, while police functions will be carried out via Ukrainian nationalists that SVR likens to World War II-era Sonderkommando. The last part is intriguing since it raises the question of why 100,000 NATO troops/peacekeepers would be required. Only a fraction of that is needed for tripwire and training purposes so perhaps those numbers are inaccurate.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Smoke rises from clashes between Syrian rebels and Govern-
ment forces in the Aleppo countryside on Wednesday.

Everything will depend on whether the terrorists are stopped outside of Aleppo; the outcome of any possible battle for that city; and how desperate Assad becomes if he loses control over it and the terrorists advance on Damascus.

The terrorist-designated Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS), which is the rebranded form of the Al Qaeda-backed Al-Nusra, launched a surprise offensive in Aleppo this week. It’s already made a lot of progress due to the terrorists’ use of drones and other modern warfare tactics. These were reportedly taught to them by Ukraine according to reports in the run-up to the latest hostilities. Other reports included Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) warning about a false-flag chemical weapons attack.

Syrian, Iranian, and Russian forces (including its aerospace ones) are currently trying to push back HTS’ advance. This intense fighting comes immediately after the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal, which that Iranian-backed Resistance group agreed to in spite of the late Nasrallah’s pledge not to do so without a ceasefire in Gaza first. It can therefore be interpreted as an Israeli victory despite Iran hailing this agreement and its ideologically aligned influencers spinning it as a Resistance victory.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Abkhazia’s reputation in Russians’ eyes has been damaged by the latest unrest.

Abkhazia is considered a Russian ally after Moscow recognized its independence in 2008 following that August’s five-day war with Georgia, yet a critical mass of its people is now protesting against an investment deal with their benefactor, even going as far as to storm and occupy the local parliament. Outside observers might therefore assume that this is an anti-Russian revolt, whether a naturally occurring one or a foreign-orchestrated Color Revolution, but the situation is more complicated.

The demonstrators insist that they’re not against Russia and some have even flown Russian flags during their protests, but they also claim that the terms of the proposed investment deal might only benefit wealthy oligarchs and thus come at the expense of average Abkhazians. These people have a very strong sense of nationalism which began to manifest itself during the early Soviet period, exploded into a brutal war with Georgia shortly after the USSR’s dissolution, and is now once again making itself known.

This is typical of the Caucasus region, whose people on both sides of that mountain range are stereotyped as being fiery and hot-headed, which has historically led to trouble for Russia. Sometimes their perception of contemporary issues, regardless of whether this accurately reflects objective reality, leads to them forgetting everything that Russia has done for them in the past. Such is the case with the Abkhazians who are now taking Russia’s patronage of their largely unrecognized country for granted.

The only reason why their polity has continued to survive from the early 1990s till today is due to the presence of Russian forces there, first as peacekeepers in agreement with Georgia and then as allies per a bilateral deal after Moscow recognized its independence. Many ethnic Abkhazians, who constitute around half of the population, nowadays hold Russian citizenship. The Kremlin also funds over one-third of its ally’s budget, supports its armed forces, and pays for many of its people’s pensions too.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Observers should keep an eye on this since it’s a low-probability but high-impact scenario.

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that “A Miami Financier Is Quietly Trying to Buy Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline” if it soon goes to auction in a Swiss bankruptcy proceeding. They described how Stephen P. Lynch has a history of conducting business in Russia and he’s also quoted as saying “This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for American and European control over European energy supply for the rest of the fossil-fuel era.” That’s true, and it could play a key role in any grand Russian-US compromise.

“Everyone Missed The Most Important Part Of The First Putin-Scholz Call In Two Years” earlier this month after Putin made a pass at Scholz hinting that the last undamaged part of this project could be put back to use if Germany helps de-escalate the Ukrainian Conflict instead of contributing to its escalation. Germany is on the brink of a recession due in large part to high energy costs brought about by its compliance with US pressure to sanction Russia. It’s therefore interested in cheap and reliable energy.

At the same time, Trump is expected to pressure the EU into supporting his trade war against China. This will already be difficult enough to do as it is, especially since China and the EU are about to patch up their electric vehicle dispute and China is the EU’s second-largest trade partner.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

He wants to deter the even greater provocations that the West might now be plotting, such as destabilizing and then invading Belarus, with the intent of coercing him into freezing the existing LOC and then possibly accepting the deployment of Western/NATO peacekeepers there.

Putin surprised the world on Thursday when he addressed the nation to inform them that Russia had tested a new hypersonic medium-range missile earlier that morning in an attack against a famous Soviet-era industrial complex in the Ukrainian city of Dnepropetrovsk. He explained that this was a response to the US and UK recently allowing Ukraine to use their long-range missiles inside of Russia. Their decision resulted in the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine “assuming elements of a global nature” in his words.

As was explained here with regards to the “moment of truth” that this latest phase of the conflict led to, he was faced with the choice of either escalating or continuing his policy of strategic patience, the first of which could foil attempts by Trump to reach a peace deal while the second could invite more aggression. Putin chose the former and did so in a creative way that few foresaw. The Oreshnik missile system whose existence he disclosed on Thursday has Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs).

It's essentially the same sort of weapon that Russia could use in the event of a nuclear conflict with the West since the aforesaid feature coupled with its hypersonic speed means that it’s impossible to intercept. In other words, Putin rattled Russia’s nuclear saber in the most convincing way possible short of testing a nuclear weapon, which his government previously confirmed that it wouldn’t do for the reasons that were explained here. He’s therefore finally climbing the escalation ladder.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

The main point that’s being conveyed through these updated terms is that Russia will not allow Ukraine to be used as NATO’s proxy for inflicting the bloc’s hoped-for strategic defeat upon it.

The entering into force of Russia’s updated nuke doctrine, the purpose of which was analyzed here in late September, made headlines across the world because it coincided with a major escalation of the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine. The US allowed Ukraine to use its ATACMS inside of Russia’s pre-2014 territory despite Moscow warning how dangerous that would be. This moment of truth was analyzed here for those who’d like to learn more about how it’ll influence the contours of this conflict.

The circumstances in which Russia might resort to using nukes can be better understood after Sputnik published an unofficial translation of this doctrine here. The document stipulates that their purpose is to deter a wide range of threats and that they’ll only be used as a last resort. Such threats include everything from nearby large-scale military drills by Russia’s foes to the blocking of critical transport links in a likely nod to Kaliningrad among well-known ones like overwhelming conventional attacks, et al.

Moreover, Russia will regard such threats by countries with the backing of others as joint acts of aggression, thus placing these proxies’ patrons in its crosshairs if they cross its most sensitive red lines. The main point that’s being conveyed through these updated terms is that Russia will not allow Ukraine to be used as NATO’s proxy for inflicting the bloc’s hoped-for strategic defeat upon it. The timing of its publication suggests that the spree of provocations since February 2022 reshaped Russia’s thinking.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

It remains unclear what Putin will ultimately do, but whichever of these two choices he makes will determine the trajectory of this conflict from now on, either more escalation or a possible compromise.

Reports emerged on Sunday that the US finally approved Ukraine’s request to use long-range ATACMS missiles against targets inside of Russia’s pre-2014 borders, which was followed by other reports claiming that France and the UK then followed suit.

They’ve yet to be used at the time of writing, but Zelensky ominously implied later that day that this could happen very soon. The reason why this is the moment of truth is that Putin earlier warned that it would amount to NATO’s direct involvement in the conflict.

This analysis here about Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine hyperlinks to eight related analyses about everything from “red lines” to the “war of attrition” that readers should review for background context. It also points out how this new policy “regard[s] an aggression against Russia from any non-nuclear state but involving or supported by any nuclear state as their joint attack against the Russian Federation” in Putin’s own words. The stakes therefore haven’t ever been this high.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Given the enormity of the task at hand, Trump might be unable to execute his reported plan for organizing a Western/NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine unless he announces the US’ direct involvement in this scheme, which he’s not predicted to do.

It was recently assessed that “The Clock Is Ticking For Russia To Achieve Its Maximum Goals In The Ukrainian Conflict” after the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump plans to organize a Western/NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine without the US’ participation to freeze the conflict. This is obviously a lot easier said than done. Here’s what can offset this scenario by either delaying it long enough for Russia to end the conflict on its own terms or capsizing Trump’s plan completely:

1. The Europeans Fear A Direct Kinetic Escalation With Russia

France’s tough talk earlier this year about conventionally intervening in the conflict and Poland's subsequent refusal to rule out its participation also mask the Europeans’ fear of a direct kinetic escalation with Russia. Trump will have to masterfully leverage the US’ influence over them and NATO as a whole to coerce his country’s European partners into putting their security on the line by going through with this risky plan. It could always backfire, after all, and inadvertently spark World War III.

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