Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

The suspect is a Ukro-maniac who’d been radicalized by the Mainstream Media into traveling to Kiev, trying to join the “International Legion”, and even recruiting former Afghan soldiers for it.

The authorities detained a man on Sunday who attempted to assassinate presidential frontrunner Donald Trump at his golf course in Florida. He was caught with an AK-47, a scope, and a GoPro camera. It turns out that he’s also fairly well known, being a former construction worker-turned-mercenary by the name of Ryan Routh. The New York Times even reported on him in spring 2023, mentioning that he’d spent some time in Kiev and was actively recruiting Afghan soldiers who fled to Pakistan as refugees.

CNN confirmed that he posted on social media shortly after the special operation began that “I AM WILLING TO FLY TO KRAKOW AND GO TO THE BORDER OF UKRAINE TO VOLUNTEER AND FIGHT AND DIE…Can I be the example We must win.” Routh also criticized Trump for wanting to “MASA…make Americans slaves again master”, among other rants against the former president. Quite clearly, he drank the Kool-Aid and was convinced that Trump was a ‘threat to democracy’ and likely also a ‘Russian agent’.

In many ways, his profile closely resembles that of the political extremist who was radicalized by the Mainstream Media into thinking similar falsehoods about Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, which drove him to try to kill the incumbent last spring in an assassination attempt that he only narrowly survived. Both were obsessed with Ukraine, but Routh’s connection to it wasn’t just as a bystander, but as a participant in NATO’s proxy war on Russia given his time in Kiev and recruitment of mercenaries for it.

He was also almost certainly a member of “NAFO” too, the global troll network that’s connected to the Ukrainian, American, and other Western governments as documented by investigative journalists Moss Robeson and Alex Rubinstein, among others. The latter’s colleague Max Blumenthal also shared some brief additional insight into Routh’s ties with Ukraine’s “International Legion”. Those mercenaries are backed by the US Government, thus linking him to them as well.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Rarely is everything as clear-cut as it seems...

Putin warned last week that letting Ukraine use Western long-range weapons to strike deep inside of Russia 💬 “will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are parties to the war in Ukraine. This will mean their direct involvement in the conflict, and it will clearly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict dramatically. This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia.”

He preceded his words by reminding everyone that “the Ukrainian army is not capable of using cutting-edge high-precision long-range systems supplied by the West. They cannot do that. These weapons are impossible to employ without intelligence data from satellites which Ukraine does not have. This can only be done using the European Union’s satellites, or US satellites – in general, NATO satellites…(and) only NATO military personnel can assign flight missions to these missile systems.”

Foreign Minister Lavrov briefed foreign ambassadors about this on the same day, repeating the same points as his boss but also adding that 💬 “Our experts are confident that without such (Western) specialist involvement, it would be impossible (for Ukraine) to use these complex systems. These tasks can only be performed by professionals who have worked with these systems for a long time and know how to operate them. It would be impossible to train someone to use them in just a few weeks.”

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

The US simply cannot accept that it lost the battle for hearts and minds across the Global South and even among a growing segment of the Western population itself.

The US’ sanctions against RT on the basis of it supposedly functioning as an undeclared intelligence agency “engaged in covert influence operations” are the continuation of its liberal-globalist elite’s efforts to revive the Russiagate conspiracy theory ahead of the November elections. Elements thereof earlier smeared Jill Stein as “a useful idiot for Russia” and then RT was accused of financing some top conservative influencers, who weren’t even aware of these alleged ties, all of which was explained here:

● 4 September: “The Democrats’ Attacks Against Jill Stein Show How Desperate They’re Getting”
● 5 September: “The Latest Russiagate Scandal Aims To Discredit Alt-Media & Trump”
● 7 September: “Russia’s Tenet Media Operation Was A Total Flop If The Reports Are True”

The intent was to discredit third-party candidates, Alt-Media, Trump, and top conservative influencers in the hopes of manipulating more voters into casting their ballots for Kamala. It remains to be seen whether this will succeed, but the complementary goal being advanced by the latest move is to scapegoat RT for the US’ global soft power failures. RT has proudly informed their audience of “inconvenient truths” about US foreign policy, however, so there’s nothing conspiratorial about that.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

His proposal is well-intentioned but ill-advised for the reasons that’ll be explained.

The respected Russian intellectual Sergey Karaganov, who serves as the honorary chairman of Russia’s influential Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and is also an academic supervisor at the Higher School of Economics’ School of International Economics and Foreign Affairs, is once again talking about nukes. He made global headlines last year after he proposed a nuclear first strike against Europe, which was responded to here, and just gave an interview to Kommersant about updating Russia’s nuclear doctrine.

Although the preceding hyperlinked response supported this proposal at the time, upon further reflection, it’s clear that it won’t deter the West for the reasons that’ll now be explained. The current doctrine enumerates four scenarios in which nukes can be used, which include threats to the existence of the state and large-scale conventional aggression. Karaganov believes that they should be used “in the event of any encroachment on our territory and our citizens” in a nod to Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk.

While he’s sure to have his share of supporters among the hawks at home and Russia’s most passionate supporters abroad, they’re all overlooking a few “inconvenient facts”. First, any encroachment of Russian territory can be framed as threatening the existence of the state if the Commander-in-Chief truly wants to use nukes in response, but the current one won’t resort to radical measures as explained here. Basically, Putin has worked hard to avoid World War III by miscalculation, and he won’t get careless now.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are in the midst of converging crises caused by the failed counteroffensive, the forcible conscription policy, and Zelensky’s Kursk blunder, which are leading to more desertions, defeats, and ultimately more desperation.

CNN carried out a rare act of journalistic service with their detailed report about how “Outgunned and outnumbered, Ukraine’s military is struggling with low morale and desertion”. It candidly describes the numerous problems afflicting the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) at this pivotal moment in the conflict as they continue to occupy part of Kursk but are still losing ground in Donbass. Their story begins by introducing a battalion commander who lost most of the around 800 men under his control.

This figure couldn’t take it anymore and thus transferred to a cushy military administrative job in Kiev. He and the five others who CNN spoke to when researching their report informed them that “desertion and insubordination are becoming a widespread problem, especially among newly recruited soldiers.” In the words of one commander, “Not all mobilized soldiers are leaving their positions, but the majority are…They either leave their positions, refuse to go into battle, or try to find a way to leave the army.”

The reader is then informed that these troops are forcibly conscripted, thus adding context to why they desert, but they also claimed that morale problems began to infect the armed forces’ ranks during the now-resolved impasse over more American aid to Ukraine. While that likely played a role, CNN conspicuously omits to mention last summer’s failed counteroffensive, which proved that Ukraine is unable to reconquer its lost lands despite all the hype and the aid that it received up until that point.

Moving along after having clarified the real reason behind the UAF’s plunging morale over the past year, drones have made the battlefield more unbearable than before, and the amount of time between rotations has grown since some troops simply can’t leave their positions without risking their lives. CNN then added that “In just the first four months of 2024, prosecutors launched criminal proceedings against almost 19,000 soldiers who either abandoned their posts or deserted”.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Poles fear that their elite will sell out the Volhynia Genocide victims to Ukraine for hubristic geopolitical and economic reasons that’ll result in whitewashing this World War II-era crime.

Ukraine has no realistic chance of joining the EU anytime soon since it doesn’t meet the bloc’s criteria, but another obstacle has unexpectedly emerged, and that’s the Volhynia Genocide dispute with Poland. Kiev refuses to recognize the World War II-era slaughter of over 100,000 ethnic Poles in that region and Eastern Galicia as genocide and has dragged its feet on exhuming the victims’ remains. This issue catapulted back to the forefront of their ties after its Foreign Minister’s provocative comments last week.

“Kuleba Equated Ukraine’s Genocide Of Poles With Poland’s Forcible Resettlement Of Ukrainians” when attempting to deflect from a question about this, which provoked the indignation of so many Poles that their German-backed Ukrainophile Prime Minister felt forced to condemn what he said. Tusk described it as “unequivocally negative” and pledged that “Ukraine, one way or another, will have to meet Poland’s expectations” on this issue.

The irony though is that Tusk oversaw the signing of a Polish-Ukrainian security pact over the summer that included a controversial clause about standardizing their historical curricula, which was analyzed at the time as implying that Poland planed to whitewash the genocide that it commemorates yearly. The only reason why he’s now demanding historical justice is because he fears that trying to sweep the issue under the rug after Kuleba’s comments could harm his party ahead of next year’s presidential elections.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

There are many passionate investigative journalists who could ensure that this becomes Biden and the Democrats’ defining legacy if they dedicate their lives to exposing them.

21stCenturyWire published an intriguing report over the weekend about how “Austrian Court Case Reveals More Evidence of Biden, Democrat Corruption in Ukraine”. The gist is that Austria ruled against the US’ requested extradition of a prominent Ukrainian businessman in 2015 on the basis that it couldn’t prove his guilt, plus the documents that he shared in his support proved “the blatant political overtones” of the case. Readers can learn more about the details upon reviewing the preceding hyperlinked report.

What’s sufficient for casual observers to know is that a GOP victory in November could lead to the political will required to thoroughly investigate Biden’s meddling in Ukraine during his time as Obama’s Vice President. This sequence of events can’t be taken for granted though since Trump might lose and/or the Republicans might not win Congress. He declined to investigate Hillary during his first term despite his infamous call to “lock her up” so he might not investigate Biden either if he wins again.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

He wouldn’t have gone through with this $3 billion deal if he really thought that the West was trying to overthrow him like he claimed less than a month ago.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic surprised observers when he announced during a meeting with his French counterpart in Belgrade last week that he agreed to a $3 billion deal to buy 12 Rafale warplanes. The reason why this was so unexpected is that his government had recently accused the West of orchestrating an ultimately failed Color Revolution against him in early August that he claimed Russia had also warned him about right beforehand.

It was explained here at the time why “The Serbian Government Is Inadvertently Responsible For The Latest Color Revolution Intrigue”, which drew attention to the legitimate grievances that some patriotic members of its population have against him. These include taking steps that can be interpreted as de facto recognition of Kosovo’s “independence”, voting against Russia at the UN, and allegedly arming Ukraine. Nevertheless, the West still wants a fully compliant puppet, not someone with semi-autonomy.

The last-mentioned observation accounts for why they still kindle Color Revolution unrest in Serbia, though Vucic’s French warplane deal suggests that he doesn’t take it as seriously as he makes it seem. After all, if he was really concerned about being overthrown through weaponized protests like Slobodan Milosevic before him, then he’d have presumably pulled Serbia out of large-scale military talks with the West like the ones that it was engaged in with France up until now.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

State sovereignty is a reality of International Relations, and those who deny it do so at their own risk regardless of whether they disagree with the forms in which it’s expressed, which Durov just learned the hard way after naively believing that he was invincible for reasons of wealth and ideology.

Telegram co-founder and CEO Pavel Durov’s arrest in France last weekend as part of an investigation into his platform’s alleged facilitation of crimes like child pornography and drug trafficking has prompted a global outcry against the EU’s hypocritical crackdown on free speech. He’s since been released on bail, but the exact circumstances of his arrest still remain murky. What’s known for sure though is that he was arrested upon landing in Paris, either to refuel, dine with a lady friend, or have dinner with Macron.

In any case, Durov’s naivete was his Achilles’ heel since he never imagined that he’d be detained on any pretext – let alone by his naturalized country of France (he’s a citizen of multiple states) – due to his immense wealth. He also believed that the era of states was inevitably ending and would be replaced by an era where companies such as his command more power than many states. Despite knowing that Telegram was being investigated by the EU, he still didn’t fear going there.

Another factor that influenced his thinking was the celebrity status that he obtained in the West for infamously defying his native Russia’s reported request over a decade ago to hand over information about some users who were allegedly engaged in terrorist activity upon a court order. As a transnational socialite whose encrypted platform played a key role in organizing Color Revolutions across the world, Durov truly felt that he was too valuable to the West to detain, let alone prosecute.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Those Alt-Media Community influencers who aggressively gatekept all prior criticisms of Lula 3.0’s foreign policy and then “canceled” those who shared such views while continuing to insist that he’d never align himself with the US’ regime change operations in the region have just been exposed as frauds.

The Alt-Media Community (AMC), which refers to the diverse collection of non-Mainstream Media outlets and individuals, generally has a positive view of Brazilian President Lula. His arrest as a result of the US-backed “Operation Car Wash” turned him into a political martyr. Many then celebrated his victory over Bolsonaro during the fall 2022 elections after his surprise release from jail 18 months prior. He could do no wrong in their eyes and they eagerly awaited the next iteration of his foreign policy.

Much to their surprise, he became the first BRICS leader to condemn Russia and then did so once again in a joint statement with Biden, thus confirming that “Lula’s Recalibrated Multipolar Vision Makes Him Amenable To The US’ Grand Strategic Interests” exactly as the preceding analysis explained at the time. Soros then endorsed him for being “on the front-line of the conflict between open and closed societies” and is even reportedly considering creating a global influence network with the US Democrats.

The only explanation that accounts for these unexpected foreign policy moves is that he either transformed during his imprisonment from a proud multipolar socialist into a cheap Brazilian knockoff of the US Democrats or he finally stopped pretending to be what he might have always been all along. In any case, these moves sharply contrasted with what many expected of him, yet his most zealous followers – who can be described as the “Lula Liberals” – gaslighted and attacked all online dissidents.

The reality became such that “The Latest Hybrid War On Brazil Is Now Being Waged By Putatively Pro-Lula Forces”, not anti-Lula ones, as explained in the preceding analysis. Basically, the Workers’ Party (PT) split into liberal-globalist and multipolar-socialist factions during Lula’s imprisonment, with the former nowadays far outweighing the latter in influence. The liberal-globalists largely align with the US Democrats’ foreign policy while the multipolar-socialists are largely independent thereof.

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