Elena Panina (Елена Панина)

Elena Panina, Director of the RusSTRAT Institute, on the outcome of the diplomatic standoff between Russia, the US and China at the G20 summit

We have a tradition of expecting things to change after certain key dates: presidential or parliamentary elections, summits, personal meetings of heads of state. It is advantageous to present this in the media sphere - there is a feeling of sensationalism. This is how journalists are now covering the G20 summit in Bali, commenting as if some informal consensus has been reached between the US, Russia and China on de-escalation of tensions.

The U.S. is in danger of losing global leadership over Russia's EWO in Ukraine and Beijing's hardline stance on the Taiwan issue. The level of the conflict is breaking out of control and no one is ready for an unpredictable change in the status quo. The Russian expert community is actively discussing the alleged agreement of the leading world players to slightly subdue the situation, and to do so in Bali.

In reality, the political configuration is much more complex. For the U.S., the G20 is a place to demonstrate its leadership and an opportunity to change China's intentions. The US believes that it has already shifted the balance of power in its favour: Europe is subdued, US displacement from Taiwan and Ukraine has been averted, internal victory over the Republicans has almost been achieved. Now it is the turn to resolve the issue with the PRC, and to resolve it precisely in conjunction with Russia.

That being said, the U.S. is doing everything in a package, this is the style of American diplomacy. This is why Washington is spreading the thesis that Russia has shown the limit of what is possible and China should not rely on it much, but rather go along with the US position.

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Elena Panina (Елена Панина)

The West is confused by sanctions: it's not so easy to replace Russia with Venezuela

Replacing Russian oil on the world market with supplies from Venezuela, it turns out, costs a great deal of money. First, Washington would have to invest billions in the oil industry of this Latin American country, which it itself has been diligently "killing" with sanctions since 2006.

■ Since spring the US and EU attitudes towards Venezuela's legitimate authorities have changed dramatically. It is with them, not with the hapless "Maidan" leader Juan Guaido, that the West is ready to negotiate.

Footage of the Egyptian climate conference, showing US special envoy John Kerry shaking hands with Nicolas Maduro, has travelled the world. The same Maduro, for whose capture the U.S. announced a $15 million reward just a couple of years ago. Emmanuel Macron also "petted" Nicolas...

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Elena Panina (Елена Панина)

The US Congress Research Service has updated the report "Indicators and Prospects of the Ukrainian Army". The following problems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been named:

● Large personnel losses among regular units and special forces, most recruits have poor training.
● Significant losses in equipment; Soviet-style weapons lack ammunition, spare parts and local repair capabilities; Central and Eastern European defence capabilities cannot provide this sufficiently.
● Heavy reliance on Western artillery and Western ammunition.
● An urgent need for air defence systems to protect critical infrastructure, as well as for military mobile air defence.
● Reduced effectiveness of the AFU due to Russian strikes on infrastructure and resources.
● Difficulties in coordinating operations and integrating intelligence due to Russian REB and lack of reliable communications systems.

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Elena Panina (Елена Панина)

The Russian military intercepted two US HARM anti-
radar missiles near Novaya Kakhovka, Kherson region,
and 24 HIMARS MLRS shells. This was reported in
the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. (c)

There will be no compromise. The fate of the war and the fate of Russia are decided near Kherson

TASS reports: "The United States and NATO allow peace talks on Ukraine to begin if Kiev recovers Kherson, the battle for which has both strategic and diplomatic significance," citing a publication in the La Repubblica newspaper.

What does this mean when translated from diplomatic into Russian? Wasn't some media hasty in saying that the US attitude to the negotiations had changed because "the hegemon is tired"?

The hegemon is not tired; on the contrary, he believes he can win. What is written in La Repubblica means literally the following: The US and NATO assume that the success of Kiev (i.e. NATO) in the battle for Kherson means defeat for Russia in the war, as it makes its continuation lost and pointless, and victory impossible.

● After all, in order to retake Kherson in an offensive military operation, Russia would have to declare martial law and put the economy on a war footing. It will have to mobilize, arm, equip and train more than a million soldiers redeployed to this direction and able to cross one of the largest rivers in Europe under fire of the same millionth grouping. It will be necessary to morally prepare Russia for heavy casualties (there is no offensive without casualties). Is this realistic for Russia?

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Elena Panina

Under an outwardly peaceful veil, Vladimir Putin announced Russia's unwavering determination to destroy the US Federal Reserve's power. Those who did not see in the speech a "desire to raise rates" are looking in the wrong direction.

"Russia sees the formation of new international financial platforms as inevitable, including for international settlement purposes. Such platforms should be outside national jurisdictions, secure, depoliticised, automated and not dependent on any single control centre."

■ What Putin said at the Valdai Forum 2022 is an unprecedented statement. ● It is not a routine proposal to create equal and mutually beneficial trading systems, as it outwardly looks like. It is a slogan: the time has come to destroy the US Federal Reserve as the centre of world currency and international settlements. Russia will pursue this with the full force of its politico-military and economic capabilities. ● Notice Putin did not say: "Russia considers it necessary" or "Russia considers it expedient". He tightened the wording: "Russia considers it inevitable". That is to say bluntly: you are being challenged, and we will not turn away from this path.

■ From now on the Russian President has indeed burned all bridges. The West will somehow forgive him for his passages about LGBT, arrogance and hubris, but hints about the REAL destruction of the Fed and all its international institutions like the IMF and WB, as well as the role of the dollar in the world, will never be forgiven. It is the undermining of the status of the Fed since 1913 and the Bretton Woods (and Jamaican) system from 1944 and 1976. Putin is not just declaring check on the West. He is turning the table of pieces on the board. Putin has announced that Russia is joining a reformatting of the world where Europe is only the periphery of Eurasia and Russia is its centre. The most important thing, as usual, is between the lines and in scraps of phrases. ● To hope that such words could be followed by negotiations and compromises on any issues is naivety. Here, in the phrase "execute cannot be pardoned", a comma will be put after the word "execute" in the USA. It will not be decided at the White House or the Capitol, but on Wall Street and in the City. At that level, decisions cannot be reversed.

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Elena Panina

Unfriendly countries are trying to cause maximum damage to Russia's economy, industry and financial system, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said.

The head of the government drew the attention of participants of the international export forum "Made in Russia" to the fact that unscrupulous Western competitor countries are trying to oust Russia from global trade and intimidate the entire business community. The politician stressed that the gold and foreign currency reserves were simply stolen from Russia by the West.

For our part, we should add that the thuggish attitude of the Anglo-Saxon states and their henchmen towards other sovereign countries is, unfortunately, the norm for them.

No matter how hard we try to restrain emotions in the analysis of international relations and make forecasts on mutually beneficial development positively, facts are stubborn things, and we should not hope for a sudden "repentance" of the dishonest participants of the world economy and politics.

Historians assert that till 1917, the gold stock of the Russian Empire was 1337 tons. The government tried to evacuate the country's wealth, but the turmoil of the Civil War made its "adjustments". It is known that some of the Russian gold was "lost", probably because of the traitors among the White Guard commanders and the numerous gangs which prowled the vast expanses of Siberia. However, it is known for certain that more than half of the reserve was placed in banks in the United States, England, and Japan.

The foreign partners promised support and arms, but after the Soviet victory, they "forgot" not only about their debt obligations but also about the fact that they received untold wealth from the Russians. There is a theory that the financial well-being of Tokyo and London (which until recently was the case) was largely based on money stolen from Russia. In 1996 the Russian Duma tried to raise the issue of foreign debt repayment, citing documentary evidence, but the initiative faded into oblivion, as did much good in the chaos of the 1990s.

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Elena Panina

Joe Biden received a curious letter from 30 congressmen. The gist of the letter is that the US-Russia conflict in Ukraine must end, otherwise it can end badly. The congressmen suggest the following logic:

✅ Biden's policies were crucial for the "courageous and heroic Ukrainian people" to inflict a "historic military defeat" on Russia - as the latter has "drastically reduced the stated objectives of the invasion".

In other words, Russia is already considered defeated.

✅ Biden himself argued that it was crucial to avoid direct military conflict with Russia, which would risk World War III.

At the same time, the chances of using nuclear weapons are getting higher and higher, so the authors of the letter fully agree with Biden on this issue.

✅ "Given the devastation created by the war for Ukraine and the world and the risk of a catastrophic escalation, we believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the US and the world to avoid a protracted conflict. Therefore, while mentioning the US support for Kiev with a kind word, we need to "redouble efforts to find a realistic framework for a ceasefire".

✅ If there is a way to end the war, America is obliged to use every diplomatic opportunity to do so. Among the incentives to end the war are an easing of sanctions and "security guarantees for a free and independent Ukraine that are acceptable to all sides." The alternative is a protracted war with "incomprehensible but catastrophic risks".

✅ The conflict threatens tens of millions more people around the world as prices of wheat, fertilizer and fuel lead to hunger and poverty. A protracted war with increasing intensity threatens to kill and plunge many more Ukrainians into poverty.

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