The Bali Triangle

Elena Panina (Елена Панина)

Elena Panina, Director of the RusSTRAT Institute, on the outcome of the diplomatic standoff between Russia, the US and China at the G20 summit

We have a tradition of expecting things to change after certain key dates: presidential or parliamentary elections, summits, personal meetings of heads of state. It is advantageous to present this in the media sphere - there is a feeling of sensationalism. This is how journalists are now covering the G20 summit in Bali, commenting as if some informal consensus has been reached between the US, Russia and China on de-escalation of tensions.

The U.S. is in danger of losing global leadership over Russia's EWO in Ukraine and Beijing's hardline stance on the Taiwan issue. The level of the conflict is breaking out of control and no one is ready for an unpredictable change in the status quo. The Russian expert community is actively discussing the alleged agreement of the leading world players to slightly subdue the situation, and to do so in Bali.

In reality, the political configuration is much more complex. For the U.S., the G20 is a place to demonstrate its leadership and an opportunity to change China's intentions. The US believes that it has already shifted the balance of power in its favour: Europe is subdued, US displacement from Taiwan and Ukraine has been averted, internal victory over the Republicans has almost been achieved. Now it is the turn to resolve the issue with the PRC, and to resolve it precisely in conjunction with Russia.

That being said, the U.S. is doing everything in a package, this is the style of American diplomacy. This is why Washington is spreading the thesis that Russia has shown the limit of what is possible and China should not rely on it much, but rather go along with the US position.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks at the UN: The Russian Perspective

Sergey Lavrov
Foreign Minister of Russia

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks at the General Debate of the 77th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, New York, September 24, 2022

Madame President,

Ladies and gentlemen,

We are meeting at a both challenging and dramatic moment. Crisis situations are growing, and the international security situation is deteriorating rapidly.

Instead of engaging in honest dialogue and searching for compromises, we must deal with misinformation, as well as coarsely staged incidents and provocations. The policy line adopted by the West undermines trust in international institutions, which are tasked with coordinating various interests and international law as a guarantee of fairness to protect the weak from arbitrary rule. We are witnessing these negative trends in their quintessential form here in the United Nations, which rose from the rubble of German fascism and Japanese militarism and was established to promote friendly relations among its members and to prevent conflict among them.

The future world order is being decided today, as any unbiased observer can clearly see. The question is whether this world order will have a single hegemon that forces everyone else to live by its infamous rules, which only benefit this hegemon and no one else. Or whether this will be a democratic and just world free from blackmail and intimidation against the unwanted, as well as free from neo-Nazism and neo-colonialism. Russia firmly opts for the second option. Together with our allies, partners, and like-minded countries, we call for efforts to make this a reality.

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